WASHINGTON–The National Retail Federation (NRF) projected retail industry sales will increase 2.5 percent from last year in its 2010 economic forecast. According to its bi-monthly Retail Sales Outlook, influential economic indicators such as the housing market and employment are beginning to show positive signs, which will bolster consumer confidence throughout the year. The forecast excludes automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants
“As we continue to see signs of improvement throughout the U.S economy in 2010, overall sentiment will begin to lift, making way for slight increases in consumer spending,” said NRF chief economist Rosalind Wells. “While we still expect shoppers to continue to be frugal with their discretionary spending, retailers will soon be able to reap the benefits of leaner, smarter inventories and a year and a half of pent up consumer demand.”
Consumer spending will lag behind overall economic growth, Wells estimates, but will continue to expand at a modest 2.0 to 2.5 percent rate. Total industry retail sales for 2009 declined 2.5 percent.
NRF is the world's largest retail trade association, with membership that comprises all retail formats and channels of distribution including department, specialty, discount, catalog, Internet, independent stores, chain restaurants, drug stores and grocery stores as well as the industry's key trading partners of retail goods and services.