NEW YORK–The gluten-free market is growing as more shoppers who suffer from digestive issues, and those who don’t, are looking for alternatives to wheat products. However, this growth may not be sustainable if consumers lose interest and start to see it as a fad diet.
According to Datamonitor, gluten-free sales are set to grow by $1.2 billion globally during the next five years to be worth more than $4.3 billion. Within the United States, the market analyst predicts the market for gluten-free products to grow by more than $500 million by 2014, making the United States 53 percent of the global market.
Mark Whalley, consumer analyst at Datamonitor, noted “The US ownership of more than half the global market for gluten-free products can be partially attributed to popularity of diet fads in the United States.” He added those that following a gluten-free diet greatly outnumber those that suffer from celiac disease.
Celebrity endorsement of the diet also helps it popularity in the in United States. “In the US, particularly, celebrities have also helped to make ‘gluten-free’ high profile,” Whalley said. “A growing number of people in the public eye—Jennifer Anniston, Elisabeth Hasselbeck and Jenny McCarthy—have been linked to gluten- or wheat-free diets, and the publicity generated has been responsible for aiding growth over the last few years.”
Because of the fad nature of popular diets, Datamonitor believes the gluten-free market may suffer in the same way that low/no-carb products did over the second half of the last decade. With a number of consumers also wrongly self-diagnosing themselves as celiacs, as well as gluten-free being somewhat of a ‘vogue diet’ – therefore susceptible to a rapid decline in popularity among non-celiacs – it is possible that long-term growth will be negatively impacted.
Whalley continued: “In fact there are already signs that the gluten-free market may plateau in the future, as the growth we predict over the next five years is somewhat less than what we’ve seen for the last five years.”
Quality products will good taste will help sustain the market, noted Whalley. “One hurdle brands face is making sure the taste of gluten-free products is appealing. Manufactures need to adopt a more holistic approach ensuring they communicate the wider benefits of gluten-free foods rather than relying on what is excluded from the products. Therefore brands should focus on appealing to a broader audience to strengthen the long-term prospects of gluten-free food. However, they cannot lose sight of the fact that core consumers of the products will always be celiacs, so relying on consumers outside of this demographic in the long term will prove to be a very risky strategy.”